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A Message from Alexander Höptner, CEO of 100x Group

There is no doubt that crypto markets can be volatile. 

During the weekend of 17 April, Bitcoin as well as the majority of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap dipped in price by 10% or more.

While this may have resulted in nervous investors selling, it did little to shake long-term HODLers. And while hodling is an admirable strategy (and to date, a lucrative one), there are many investors who are constantly plagued with one question in particular - when do I take profits? 

If that’s you, don’t worry - you are not alone. In this edition of Crypto Trader Digest, Arthur shares a framework that will definitely get you thinking. Enjoy.

- Alex (@AlexHoeptner)

From the Desk of Arthur Hayes

Grow Up or Blow Up


(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Being right is great, but the true trading legends are right and then continue holding their positions until they are RICH. A lot of people lament that, had they bought Bitcoin back some years ago, if they held until today, they would be in a different wealth category. But how many shoulda, woulda, coulda investors could have bought Bitcoin at $1 and not sold when it doubled to $2, or how about 10x’d to $10.
The difference between a trader and a truly prescient investor is having the courage to let your winners run until you reach the logical conclusion of the investing thesis that prompted the initial investment. That requires not just tactical trading acumen, but a macro belief in a theme or regime that powers the asset’s long term returns.
I laid out in “Pumping Iron” my macro view on inflation and why I believe the crypto complex will feature the best returns in the financial asset firmament over the near to medium-term. The crypto complex market cap has grown markedly since then, now flirting with $2 trillion in total capitalisation. We are riding a bull market wave at the moment, and the question on many people’s minds is –  “when should I step off the ride?” 

If we can predict the turning point where Bitcoin and cryptos cease to outperform the expansion of the reserve currency’s central bank balance sheet (The U.S. Federal Reserve), then the exit point is clear.
To help identify that turning point, let’s go back in time and empirically evaluate how the major asset classes have or have not outperformed the Fed’s balance sheet expansion. (Note: I am choosing to focus on the Fed because of the USD’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Most of this analysis will still apply to other currencies, but as we live in a USD world, let’s analyse assets priced in USD.)
And of course, before I get into it, I want to thank Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor and Luke Gromen of The Forest for the Trees for the analytical frameworks I will use below to support my thesis.

Click here to continue reading this edition of Crypto Trader Digest 

–  Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of 100x Group (@CryptoHayes)

From BitMEX Research



The Blocksize War - Chapters Five and Six 

The continuation of The Blocksize War have been released on the BitMEX blog. This book covers Bitcoin’s blocksize war, which was waged from August 2015 to November 2017. On the surface the battle was about the amount of data allowed in each Bitcoin block, however it exposed much deeper issues, such as who controls Bitcoin’s protocol rules.

The full book is available on Amazon. Half of any profits from physical book sales will be donated to Médecins Sans Frontières, a charity that provides medical assistance to people affected by conflict, epidemics, disasters, or exclusion from healthcare.


Latest News from BitMEX

BitMEX Announces Official Launch of Partner Programme

We have officially launched the BitMEX Partner Programme to more intently focus on expanding the robust network of firms within our ecosystem. Through the programme, we’ll connect our users with trusted tools that will enhance their trading experience while rewarding partners themselves with incentives based on the activity they refer to the BitMEX platform.

Zero Overloads on One of the Biggest Trading Days in Our History

As Bitcoin and the majority of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation dipped in price by 10 percent or more, the BitMEX platform performed exceptionally well with zero overloads despite Sunday being one of our biggest-ever trading days, meaning every order placed during this time was processed.

Increasing ETHUSD Swap Risk Limits for Lower Margin Requirements on Large Positions

We are increasing the risk limits on our ETHUSD swap – a small but mighty change that will make it even more capital efficient to maintain positions of 50 XBT or more on the product. The increase in the ETHUSD swap risk limits – from 50 to 75 XBT, effective 3 May 2021 at 08:00 UTC – follows our similar tweak on the XBT futures contracts. We heard a lot of positive feedback from our users on that, which is a big reason why we’ve decided to make this change.

Further Parameter Updates for a Better Trading Environment

Maintaining a fair and orderly trading environment for our users is very important to us, and we’re always thinking about how we can improve further. As part of this effort we’ve implemented two technical but important updates to the Impact Notional and % Fair Basis update methodology, which are two factors related to Mark Price.

Social Spotlight

No articles in this email should be copied or reproduced in whole or in part. The information contained does not constitute research or a recommendation. 

Neither HDR Global Trading Limited nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in these articles and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. This is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations. In addition, the receipt of this email is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice nor to constitute such person a client of the BitMEX trading platform.

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BitMEX · Suite 202, 2nd Floor, Eden Plaza · Eden Island · Mahe · Seychelles

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