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A Message from Alexander Höptner, CEO of 100x Group


The power of science fiction is that it takes us out of our comfortable bubble and places us into an alternate reality, exposing the absurdities of life as we know it. 

Knowing this, what could we gain by forcing ourselves to confront uncomfortable truths? This could be quite valuable to how we live our lives - and a lucrative macro thought exercise for crypto traders and investors as well. 

In this sure-to-be-memorable edition, Arthur challenges his own thinking, unpeels flimsy social constructs, and gives us some food for thought. Let’s feast.

- Alex (@AlexHoeptner)

From the Desk of Arthur Hayes

Fear Is The Mind-Killer



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(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

"I must not fear.

Fear is the mind-killer.

Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.

I will face my fear.

I will permit it to pass over me and through me.

And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.

Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
"
 
-       Paul Atreides, Dune
 
I love sci-fi novels. At any given time, I am reading at least one sci-fi novel. Dune, by Frank Herbert, is the single best sci-fi novel ever written. The full six book series is quite good, but the quality tapers off after the first book. The best sci-fi book series is The Three-Body Problem trilogy by Liu Cixin. It is just astoundingly well written; I wish my Mandarin was better so I could read it in Chinese rather than an English translation. If you like sci-fi this shit is the TRUTH. I’m also super pumped for the upcoming Foundation TV series. Asimov is a gangster.
 
Us traders and investors are simple creatures driven by fear and greed. While greed goads humans into doing many incredible things, the fear of loss trumps all. Daniel Kahneman has a great body of work describing how humans’ decisions are not as rational as classical economists believe. In particular, monetary loss afflicts greater damage on our psyche than monetary gain. As we venture deeper into this epic crypto bull market, an evaluation of what scares us is essential because one or more of these narratives could supplant the desire of punters to keep BTFD.

The Flippening
 
A few weeks back, I got a message from Su Zhu of Three Arrows out of the blue. He asked me what I thought the probability was that the Ether market cap would surpass Bitcoin’s during this bull run. I replied 0%, and then asked his opinion. He hit back with 50%. Raoul Pal’s May 2021 edition of the Global Macro Investor dropped shortly afterwards. Contained, in the always amazing report, was a snippet of a lengthy report by Nikhil Shamapant on why Ether could reach $150,000 by Jan 2023. After reading the report, I sent Su another message updating my probability of the flippening occurring to 30%.
 
There is a subsect of the Bitcoin community that has night tremors rooted in the fear that Ether will one day overtake their beloved currency, featuring images of Apostle Beuterin and Lord Lubin. I don’t get the tribalism, but check out Crypto Twitter for some epic Bitcoin vs. Ether rants. The Bitcoin maximalists believe that Bitcoin is the one true monetary god in the crypto firmament. Everything else is at best a supporting deity, at worst pure evil.
 
On the other end of the spectrum are mETH heads who believe that Ether can be both the hardest form of crypto money and the world’s best decentralised computer. To them, after ETH 2.0 launches and the switch from Proof-of-Work to a Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm is completed— currently slated for later this year— then Ether’s market cap will quickly eclipse Bitcoin’s.
 
I try to eradicate dogma from my thinking as much as I can lest I become married to a way of thinking that will become outdated as time marches forward. I, as all humans, will fail in this endeavour, but hopefully I reduce future losses by reminding myself I can only predict the probability outcomes and act accordingly. The dogma surrounding Bitcoin and Ether must be stripped down to what the actual fundamental vision is for each crypto. Then we can build back up to the current state of affairs and evaluate whether the narrative fundamentally makes sense.

What is Bitcoin / Ether?
 
The best forms of money have no industrial use case. Fiat currencies are very useful for commerce because they are intrinsically worthless. The demand to use a particular fiat is completely tied to the usefulness of its network. The network in this case is the number of domestic and or international trading counterparties that will accept a particular fiat currency in exchange for goods and/or labour...

Click here to continue reading this edition of Crypto Trader Digest 

–  Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of 100x Group (@CryptoHayes)

From BitMEX Research

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Breaking Down The Fee Market (EIP-1559)

In this report, we evaluate the theory behind the new Ethereum transaction fee mechanism, EIP-1559. Under the new model, there are two elements to the transaction fee - a base fee which is burned, and a tip which is allocated to block producers.

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The Blocksize War - Chapters Seven and Eight


The continuation of The Blocksize War have been released on the BitMEX blog. This book covers Bitcoin’s blocksize war, which was waged from August 2015 to November 2017. On the surface the battle was about the amount of data allowed in each Bitcoin block, however it exposed much deeper issues, such as who controls Bitcoin’s protocol rules.

The full book is available on Amazon. Half of any profits from physical book sales will be donated to Médecins Sans Frontières, a charity that provides medical assistance to people affected by conflict, epidemics, disasters, or exclusion from healthcare.

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Latest News from BitMEX


BitMEX x 3Commas: Kicking Off the Partners Programme

We’re proud to announce that 3Commas, a leading automated trading platform, has joined the BitMEX Partners Programme. As part of the partnership celebration, the BitMEX and 3Commas teams have unveiled exclusive privileges for users.

BitMEX x Tardis.dev: Partnering to Bring Comprehensive, Fair, and Transparent Market Data to Users

Tardis.dev, a provider of the most comprehensive and granular cryptocurrency market data products in the industry, has officially joined the BitMEX Partners Programme. Accurate, complete, historical market data are a trader’s best friend and are one of the most powerful resources in their toolkit. Collecting and parsing through exchange data is a time consuming and resource intensive process, not to mention the implementation costs of data collection, storage, and distribution services.

Social Spotlight


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No articles in this email should be copied or reproduced in whole or in part. The information contained does not constitute research or a recommendation. 

Neither HDR Global Trading Limited nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in these articles and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. This is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations. In addition, the receipt of this email is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice nor to constitute such person a client of the BitMEX trading platform.






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