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A Message from Alexander Höptner, CEO of 100x Group


Humans crave simple answers to complex questions. And in the pursuit of answers, we tend to bring our biases, rigid frameworks of thinking, and ideologies along with us. Great traders - whether crypto or otherwise - learn to manage this analytical baggage in the pursuit of cold, hard alpha. But as crypto breaks into the mainstream we’re seeing an exciting fusion - some may call it an exciting clash - of ideologies, not least on the role of leverage in crypto.

In this week’s Crypto Trader Digest, Arthur takes the anti-leverage argument to task, delves into the differering role of leverage in the crypto vs. traditional markets, and looks at leverage ratios of some of the biggest banks - with some findings that might surprise you. This is one to share with the crypto skeptics.

- Alex (@AlexHoeptner)

From the Desk of Arthur Hayes

I Still Can’t Draw a Line
 

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(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

One fine chill day in my senior year of university, one of my besties frantically called me in hopes I could help her pass an upcoming economics exam. I obliged, and we met up that day to go over some material. She provided a practice exam and we attempted to tackle the first question. 

To kick things off, I asked her to draw the demand curve. She looked at me like I was speaking Aramaic. I dug a little deeper, and asked if she understood how to represent a demand or supply curve linearly with a given slope. Again, she was silent. She had a few days at most until the exam, and I told her if she couldn’t even draw a line, there was no hope of me being able to teach her enough stuff to pass this exam. She somehow managed to pass, no thanks to my efforts. 

Currently, she runs her family’s pizza restaurant. We were chatting recently about the issues she is facing due to the pandemic. 

Labour Issues: She employs a lot of university-aged kids. As schools are going back to in-person classes, she is losing a lot of labour. However, she can’t replace lost workers easily because with all the various government checks, her wage rate is not competitive with Netflix and Chill courtesy of the USG.

Food Inflation: She lamented about the spike in the cost of chicken and beef. She raised her delivery charge from $1 to $2. People were pissed— that charge hadn’t changed in 40 years. Hmm… 40 years is about how long it’s been since real wages have grown in the US. 

Here are some colourful snippets of our WhatsApp chat:

“Customers crazy”

“Prices of all goods crazy”

“Chicken”

“Pork beef”

“And there’s so many things I don’t even want the customer to order because I’ll lose money lol”

“People already complain”

“They complain I made the delivery charge $2”

“When for 40 years it was only $1”

“Or the fact that we have a $15 minimum for delivery and people want a single sandwich delivered when I tell them they say that they only have $10.”

The conversation drew to a close when she asked on behalf of her brother whether Cardano was a good crypto to buy. 

“I don’t know wtf it is”

“I still can’t draw a line”

“Basically he wants to make the most money”

As usual, I disappointed her again by not providing the golden ticket to crypto riches (because I don’t have it). I gave my usual spiel about reading the white-paper, linked her to my blog, and  told her to tell her brother there are no shortcuts.

I tell this story to illustrate the gulf between an-on-the ground economic reality, and what our classically trained economic mandarins proclaim their “models” tell them about the health and trajectory of the global economy. All those erudite university grads can certainly draw lines. I can draw an IS / LM model like the best university regurgitator student. But these same people tell us inflation is “transitory”. At some point business owners will have to pay more labour to fill positions, and pass labour and input cost increases onto customers. I promise this essay will not be another diatribe about inflation. This fortnight we talk about the Kwisatz Haderach, LEVERAGE!


Click here to continue reading this edition of Crypto Trader Digest  

–  Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of 100x Group (@CryptoHayes)

From BitMEX Research

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The Blocksize War - Chapter 13 and 14


The latest chapters of The Blocksize War cover the role of exchanges in the conflict, as well as bombshell accusations of a secret agenda among some large blockers.

If you want to get ahead and read the full book, it's available on Amazon. Half of any profits from physical book sales will be donated to Médecins Sans Frontières, a charity that provides medical assistance to people affected by conflict, epidemics, disasters, or exclusion from healthcare.

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Latest News from BitMEX


BitMEX Hires Marc Robinson as Head of Custody

We’re delighted to welcome another senior new hire, this time in the form of Marc Robinson who joins us as Head of Custody. Marc joins BitMEX with more than 20 years experience, much of which was gained with traditional financial services firms in Japan. He started his career in IT and moved to ‘front office’ electronic trading with Lehman Brothers, then Nomura and then JP Morgan. 

BitMEX x hamster-bot: Automated Trading With Just A Few Clicks

Our partnership ecosystem continues to grow - we are pleased to welcome hamster-bot to the BitMEX Partner Programme. A well-known trading bot, hamster-bot is run by an experienced team and has a rich history of use by BitMEX users since 2018. 

BitMEX x Wunderbit: Trading on Autopilot Made Easy!

We’re excited to welcome Wunderbit Trading to our Partner Programme. Regulated and licensed in Estonia, the Wunderbit platform not only allows its users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies in a simple, safe, and secure way, but they also provide tools for deploying various trading strategies

Social Spotlight


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No articles in this email should be copied or reproduced in whole or in part. The information contained does not constitute research or a recommendation. 

Neither HDR Global Trading Limited nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in these articles and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. This is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations. In addition, the receipt of this email is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice nor to constitute such person a client of the BitMEX trading platform.






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BitMEX · Suite 202, 2nd Floor, Eden Plaza · Eden Island · Mahe · Seychelles

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