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<span class="ipsEmoji">????</span>Crypto Trader Digest
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A Message from Alexander Höptner, CEO of BitMEX


With the war in Ukraine, international sanctions and boycotts on Russia, and economic fallout, there’s plenty to keep the news consumer very busy. But following the day-to-day can often cause one to miss the forest for the trees - in other words, the macro implications that could last for years or even decades. These implications necessarily have an impact on our investing thesis. 

Arthur has some thoughts in the latest installment of Crypto Trader Digest that you might not expect - particularly on gold. I wonder what Peter Schiff would have to say about Arthur’s bullish gold price prediction in this essay? No matter - for us crypto traders, Arthur’s USD 1,000,000 Bitcoin price prediction might encourage us to stack some more sats for a rainy day. 


- Alex (@AlexHoeptner)

From the Desk of Arthur Hayes


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Energy Cancelled

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

The last major hydrocarbon energy shock occurred because Arab suppliers rug pulled the West. The Gulf States “lived their values” regarding the political situation in Israel at the time. This time the West decided to “live their values” and cancel the world’s largest energy producer. Don’t allow your opinion on the righteousness (or not) of the military action between Russia and Ukraine detract from the fact that this time around the Western energy consumer decided to go on strike.

I am 100% certain that there will be a financial crisis of epic proportions predicated on losses faced by commodity producers and traders who touch every aspect of the globalised financial system. You cannot remove the world’s largest energy producer - and the collateral these commodity resources represent - from the financial system without serious unimagined and unintended consequences. 

Look no further than the antics that went down on the LME with respect to its Nickel contract. Jim Bianco laid it out nicely with this tweet. The LME is a dead exchange walking. LME is the canary in the commodity derivatives coal mine.

During the unfolding of this new global financial crisis, if you are serious about what the future holds monetarily for the various global factions, reading Zoltan Pozsar’s missives is non-negotiable. He is a money markets and rates strategist for Credit Suisse and pairs an excellent understanding of the intricate plumbing of global money markets with a clear and concise writing style. I don’t know if he coined the terms “Inside Money” and “Outside Money,” but I rather like how simple yet informative these descriptions of money and collateral are.

Click here to continue reading this edition of Crypto Trader Digest

–  Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX (@CryptoHayes)

Latest Commentary from BitMEX


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Don't Wait For The Inflationary Endgame.


Abstract: We provide a follow on to our March 2020 piece, Inflation Is Coming. Inflation has now reached the highest levels since the early 1980s and the Fed will and must tighten liquidity conditions in response. Despite what some think, we believe this inevitable tightening of liquidity conditions will have a significant impact on consumer prices and the inflation rate will decline. However, in the long term, we still think inflation will emerge as the final victor and the intervening period may have volatile inflationary conditions, which could be incredibly difficult to navigate.
Inflation is here
Whatever weight you allocate to the various potential contributing factors behind the current elevated inflation rate, be it a set of specific supply chain issues in the wake of Covid-19 or the monetary and fiscal response to Covid-19, we are where we are. Inflation is now here, officially at the highest level since the early 1980s. The Fed is now required to respond and will do so.

 

Social Spotlight


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No articles in this email should be copied or reproduced in whole or in part. The information contained does not constitute research or a recommendation. 

Neither HDR Global Trading Limited nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in these articles and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. This is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations. In addition, the receipt of this email is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice nor to constitute such person a client of the BitMEX trading platform.






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